Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$150.20 - $286.12$204.94
Multi-Stage$135.92 - $148.57$142.13
Blended Fair Value$173.53
Current Price$260.44
Upside-33.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.19%11.83%2.472.131.160.000.562.221.971.741.350.92
YoY Growth--16.18%82.87%0.00%-100.00%-74.51%12.71%12.66%28.88%47.83%13.45%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.85%0.70%0.00%0.38%2.96%1.54%1.28%1.44%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,611.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)715.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,896.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)522.20326.38195.83
Cash Retained (M)1,896.001,896.001,896.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-522.20-326.38-195.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,373.801,569.631,700.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)276.23276.23276.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.975.686.15
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.975.686.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.568.278.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$150.20$204.94$286.12
Upside / Downside-42.33%-21.31%9.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,611.002,745.932,887.833,037.063,194.003,359.053,459.83
Payout Ratio27.38%39.91%52.43%64.95%77.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)715.001,095.831,514.101,972.682,474.613,023.153,200.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)992.041,001.561,011.08
Year 2 PV (M)1,240.871,264.811,288.98
Year 3 PV (M)1,463.571,506.131,549.50
Year 4 PV (M)1,662.081,726.821,793.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,838.191,928.132,021.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,348.5931,833.5533,376.07
Equity Value (M)37,545.3439,261.0141,040.65
Shares Outstanding (M)276.23276.23276.23
Fair Value$135.92$142.13$148.57
Upside / Downside-47.81%-45.43%-42.95%

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