Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.41 - $91.76$69.18
Multi-Stage$66.83 - $72.98$69.85
Blended Fair Value$69.52
Current Price$122.10
Upside-43.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.99%15.87%3.443.353.313.203.130.802.540.460.411.65
YoY Growth--2.86%1.26%3.31%2.24%292.61%-68.63%457.90%11.21%-75.24%109.67%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.74%1.84%2.08%1.85%0.86%2.32%0.42%0.48%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.4517.1610.29
Cash Retained (M)13.4413.4413.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.45-17.16-10.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-14.01-3.723.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.110.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.543.543.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.110.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.143.433.63
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate2.26%3.26%4.26%
Fair Value$52.41$69.18$91.76
Upside / Downside-57.08%-43.34%-24.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.26141.73146.34151.11156.03161.11165.94
Payout Ratio90.21%90.17%90.12%90.08%90.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.82127.79131.89136.12140.49145.00153.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate2.26%3.26%4.26%
Year 1 PV (M)116.77117.91119.05
Year 2 PV (M)110.12112.29114.47
Year 3 PV (M)103.85106.93110.07
Year 4 PV (M)97.94101.83105.83
Year 5 PV (M)92.3796.97101.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,817.851,908.502,002.72
Equity Value (M)2,338.902,444.422,553.90
Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
Fair Value$66.83$69.85$72.98
Upside / Downside-45.26%-42.79%-40.23%

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