Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lojas Renner S.A. (LREN3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$168.11 - $269.43$252.49
Multi-Stage$44.10 - $48.27$46.15
Blended Fair Value$149.32
Current Price$15.13
Upside886.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.08%16.13%0.670.450.740.240.240.400.280.250.230.17
YoY Growth--49.72%-39.55%213.26%0.08%-40.39%42.21%13.54%5.36%34.36%15.35%
Dividend Yield--5.51%2.94%4.94%0.95%0.68%1.45%0.86%0.97%1.24%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,392.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)638.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)753.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)278.42174.01104.41
Cash Retained (M)753.96753.96753.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-278.42-174.01-104.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)475.54579.95649.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,027.571,027.571,027.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.560.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.560.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.191.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$168.11$252.49$269.43
Upside / Downside1,011.11%1,568.81%1,680.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,392.091,482.581,578.951,681.581,790.881,907.291,964.51
Payout Ratio45.84%54.67%63.50%72.34%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)638.13810.551,002.691,216.391,453.621,716.561,817.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)756.21763.38770.54
Year 2 PV (M)872.74889.37906.15
Year 3 PV (M)987.761,016.111,045.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,101.261,143.611,187.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,213.271,271.871,332.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,387.2742,337.9944,363.37
Equity Value (M)45,318.5047,422.3249,604.94
Shares Outstanding (M)1,027.571,027.571,027.57
Fair Value$44.10$46.15$48.27
Upside / Downside191.49%205.02%219.06%

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