Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.46 - $51.51$41.14
Multi-Stage$37.16 - $40.63$38.86
Blended Fair Value$40.00
Current Price$88.84
Upside-54.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.63%0.00%1.060.990.990.940.930.931.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.25%0.00%4.55%1.54%0.00%-12.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.18%1.82%1.52%1.67%5.40%4.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.2027.0016.20
Cash Retained (M)140.00140.00140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.20-27.00-16.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.80113.00123.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.611.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.611.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate10.05%10.05%10.05%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$32.46$41.14$51.51
Upside / Downside-63.46%-53.69%-42.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.00223.08230.39237.93245.73253.78261.39
Payout Ratio35.19%46.15%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.00102.95131.58161.97194.22228.40241.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.05%10.05%10.05%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)92.6493.5494.45
Year 2 PV (M)106.54108.63110.75
Year 3 PV (M)118.02121.51125.07
Year 4 PV (M)127.34132.39137.59
Year 5 PV (M)134.75141.47148.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,022.092,122.902,227.68
Equity Value (M)2,601.372,720.442,844.00
Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
Fair Value$37.16$38.86$40.63
Upside / Downside-58.17%-56.25%-54.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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