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LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$244.60 - $622.06$369.13
Multi-Stage$166.86 - $182.44$174.51
Blended Fair Value$271.82
Current Price$332.69
Upside-18.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.67%-0.63%1.161.201.031.041.031.071.151.171.151.24
YoY Growth---2.67%15.48%-0.33%1.26%-4.24%-6.52%-2.12%1.34%-7.03%0.21%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.45%0.51%0.57%0.72%1.97%1.60%1.92%2.90%5.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)833.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)740.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.61104.1362.48
Cash Retained (M)740.20740.20740.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.61-104.13-62.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)573.59636.07677.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.1477.1477.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.448.258.79
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.448.258.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.649.459.99
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$244.60$369.13$622.06
Upside / Downside-26.48%10.95%86.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)833.05887.20944.871,006.291,071.701,141.361,175.60
Payout Ratio11.15%26.92%42.69%58.46%74.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.85238.81403.34588.26795.511,027.221,087.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)216.58218.64220.69
Year 2 PV (M)331.76338.08344.46
Year 3 PV (M)438.83451.43464.26
Year 4 PV (M)538.21558.91580.20
Year 5 PV (M)630.29660.74692.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,716.5211,234.1311,771.56
Equity Value (M)12,872.2013,461.9214,073.51
Shares Outstanding (M)77.1477.1477.14
Fair Value$166.86$174.51$182.44
Upside / Downside-49.84%-47.55%-45.16%

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