Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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LifeVantage Corporation (LFVN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.55 - $9.58$8.01
Multi-Stage$11.21 - $12.33$11.75
Blended Fair Value$9.88
Current Price$9.73
Upside1.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.160.120.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%30.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.29%1.86%3.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.291.430.86
Cash Retained (M)9.319.319.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.29-1.43-0.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.027.888.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.2313.2313.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.55$8.01$9.58
Upside / Downside-32.67%-17.66%-1.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.4511.3311.2211.1111.0010.8911.21
Payout Ratio18.67%32.94%47.20%61.47%75.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.143.735.306.838.339.8010.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.413.453.48
Year 2 PV (M)4.424.514.60
Year 3 PV (M)5.215.375.53
Year 4 PV (M)5.806.046.29
Year 5 PV (M)6.236.566.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)123.14129.55136.23
Equity Value (M)148.21155.47163.03
Shares Outstanding (M)13.2313.2313.23
Fair Value$11.21$11.75$12.33
Upside / Downside15.17%20.81%26.68%

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