Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Lennar Corporation (LEN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$175.35 - $426.79$260.91
Multi-Stage$123.35 - $134.73$128.94
Blended Fair Value$194.93
Current Price$130.23
Upside49.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS60.55%32.55%2.131.671.701.200.760.200.190.150.140.13
YoY Growth--27.47%-1.71%41.40%58.82%279.06%4.67%30.71%6.47%6.42%1.27%
Dividend Yield--1.63%1.39%1.07%1.24%0.84%0.24%0.32%0.30%0.24%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,078.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)529.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,549.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)415.64259.77155.86
Cash Retained (M)1,549.171,549.171,549.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-415.64-259.77-155.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,133.531,289.391,393.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)258.05258.05258.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.395.005.40
LTM Dividend per Share2.052.052.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.395.005.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.447.057.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$175.35$260.91$426.79
Upside / Downside34.64%100.35%227.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,078.182,213.262,357.122,510.342,673.512,847.292,932.70
Payout Ratio25.46%38.36%51.27%64.18%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)529.01849.111,208.581,611.192,061.042,562.562,712.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)769.03776.32783.60
Year 2 PV (M)991.361,010.251,029.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,196.971,231.341,266.35
Year 4 PV (M)1,386.771,440.101,494.95
Year 5 PV (M)1,561.601,637.031,715.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,926.0527,178.2928,478.45
Equity Value (M)31,831.7833,273.3134,768.00
Shares Outstanding (M)258.05258.05258.05
Fair Value$123.35$128.94$134.73
Upside / Downside-5.28%-0.99%3.46%

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