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Definitive Analysis

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Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. (LBAI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.24 - $162.75$67.48
Multi-Stage$24.81 - $27.10$25.93
Blended Fair Value$46.71
Current Price$12.02
Upside288.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS12.31%16.66%0.580.570.420.390.380.330.290.250.190.17
YoY Growth--1.97%37.67%6.53%2.16%16.95%13.02%17.78%27.18%16.15%32.92%
Dividend Yield--4.86%3.66%2.49%2.24%3.53%2.10%1.46%1.25%1.90%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9510.596.35
Cash Retained (M)46.6446.6446.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.95-10.59-6.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.6936.0540.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.2365.2365.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.24$67.48$162.75
Upside / Downside226.46%461.42%1,253.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.7390.2496.10102.35109.00116.09119.57
Payout Ratio44.96%53.96%62.97%71.98%80.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.0948.7060.5273.6788.28104.48110.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.5444.9745.39
Year 2 PV (M)50.6451.6052.58
Year 3 PV (M)56.3958.0159.66
Year 4 PV (M)61.8164.1966.63
Year 5 PV (M)66.9270.1573.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,338.181,402.811,469.92
Equity Value (M)1,618.481,691.731,767.69
Shares Outstanding (M)65.2365.2365.23
Fair Value$24.81$25.93$27.10
Upside / Downside106.41%115.75%125.43%

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