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Definitive Analysis

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Kearny Financial Corp. (KRNY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.94 - $7.89$6.28
Multi-Stage$7.47 - $8.16$7.81
Blended Fair Value$7.04
Current Price$6.57
Upside7.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.76%0.00%0.440.440.450.490.460.380.550.330.130.11
YoY Growth--0.25%-3.28%-7.15%7.14%18.77%-30.58%68.99%148.14%15.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.70%6.39%6.55%4.60%3.67%5.33%4.25%2.40%0.86%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.903.692.21
Cash Retained (M)1.771.771.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.90-3.69-2.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.13-1.92-0.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.7662.7662.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Fair Value$4.94$6.28$7.89
Upside / Downside-24.76%-4.42%20.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.4930.0130.5331.0731.6232.1733.14
Payout Ratio93.99%93.20%92.40%91.60%90.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.7227.9728.2128.4628.7128.9530.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Year 1 PV (M)25.5425.7926.05
Year 2 PV (M)23.5324.0024.48
Year 3 PV (M)21.6822.3323.00
Year 4 PV (M)19.9720.7821.61
Year 5 PV (M)18.4019.3320.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)359.44377.63396.56
Equity Value (M)468.56489.86511.98
Shares Outstanding (M)62.7662.7662.76
Fair Value$7.47$7.81$8.16
Upside / Downside13.63%18.80%24.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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