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KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.72 - $7.34$5.93
Multi-Stage$9.67 - $10.63$10.14
Blended Fair Value$8.04
Current Price$3.96
Upside102.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.24%-1.48%0.310.360.550.250.340.390.320.380.290.37
YoY Growth---12.68%-35.45%120.00%-26.69%-11.43%20.31%-15.79%33.33%-21.92%1.40%
Dividend Yield--7.26%7.41%10.92%3.74%7.37%10.55%6.57%8.04%6.80%10.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)983.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)617.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.65122.9073.74
Cash Retained (M)365.81365.81365.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.65-122.90-73.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)169.16242.90292.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,986.751,986.751,986.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Fair Value$4.72$5.93$7.34
Upside / Downside19.18%49.78%85.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)983.23979.29975.37971.45967.56963.68992.59
Payout Ratio62.80%68.24%73.68%79.12%84.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)617.43668.23718.62768.60818.16867.31918.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)619.00625.27631.55
Year 2 PV (M)616.62629.20641.89
Year 3 PV (M)610.91629.69648.85
Year 4 PV (M)602.39627.20652.77
Year 5 PV (M)591.53622.14654.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,178.8517,016.1017,887.65
Equity Value (M)19,219.3020,149.6021,116.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,986.751,986.751,986.75
Fair Value$9.67$10.14$10.63
Upside / Downside144.29%156.11%168.40%

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