Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

KeyCorp (KEY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.11 - $15.85$12.74
Multi-Stage$13.16 - $14.34$13.74
Blended Fair Value$13.24
Current Price$18.69
Upside-29.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.89%14.47%0.860.850.800.770.770.750.610.450.310.25
YoY Growth--1.76%6.67%3.77%-0.72%3.11%22.56%36.67%43.28%25.47%11.25%
Dividend Yield--5.40%5.48%6.35%3.43%3.87%7.22%3.74%2.29%1.76%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,075.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,030.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)215.00134.3880.63
Cash Retained (M)45.0045.0045.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-215.00-134.38-80.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-170.00-89.38-35.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,073.461,073.461,073.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate1.82%2.82%3.82%
Fair Value$10.11$12.74$15.85
Upside / Downside-45.91%-31.81%-15.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,075.001,105.351,136.561,168.661,201.651,235.581,272.65
Payout Ratio95.81%94.65%93.49%92.33%91.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,030.001,046.231,062.561,078.971,095.461,112.021,177.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate1.82%2.82%3.82%
Year 1 PV (M)942.78952.04961.30
Year 2 PV (M)862.82879.85897.05
Year 3 PV (M)789.52813.01836.96
Year 4 PV (M)722.33751.13780.77
Year 5 PV (M)660.75693.84728.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,147.2410,655.4011,183.72
Equity Value (M)14,125.4414,745.2715,388.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,073.461,073.461,073.46
Fair Value$13.16$13.74$14.34
Upside / Downside-29.59%-26.50%-23.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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