Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.17 - $11.01$9.62
Multi-Stage$14.77 - $16.24$15.49
Blended Fair Value$12.56
Current Price$24.20
Upside-48.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.55%-6.81%0.740.730.710.000.351.361.491.471.537.06
YoY Growth--0.81%3.36%0.00%-100.00%-74.67%-8.40%1.21%-3.52%-78.40%372.11%
Dividend Yield--3.05%3.65%4.59%0.00%0.94%7.73%3.70%2.97%3.16%13.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0036.8822.13
Cash Retained (M)171.00171.00171.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.00-36.88-22.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.00134.13148.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)167.78167.78167.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.800.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.800.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.411.541.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-6.25%-5.25%-4.25%
Fair Value$8.17$9.62$11.01
Upside / Downside-66.25%-60.23%-54.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.00279.50264.82250.90237.72225.23231.99
Payout Ratio42.03%51.63%61.22%70.81%80.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.00144.30162.12177.67191.14202.71214.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-6.25%-5.25%-4.25%
Year 1 PV (M)129.92131.31132.69
Year 2 PV (M)131.42134.24137.09
Year 3 PV (M)129.68133.88138.16
Year 4 PV (M)125.61131.06136.68
Year 5 PV (M)119.94126.48133.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,841.851,942.212,046.89
Equity Value (M)2,478.432,599.172,724.81
Shares Outstanding (M)167.78167.78167.78
Fair Value$14.77$15.49$16.24
Upside / Downside-38.96%-35.98%-32.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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