Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,850.66 - $42,357.85$22,081.49
Multi-Stage$14,826.59 - $16,253.05$15,526.45
Blended Fair Value$18,803.97
Current Price$3,480.00
Upside440.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.17%-2.31%58.5676.480.020.0015.2145.5260.6378.0940.4167.68
YoY Growth---23.44%374,970.27%0.00%-100.00%-66.60%-24.92%-22.36%93.26%-40.29%-8.55%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.38%1.79%1.03%1.71%0.87%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,963,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,863,914.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)792,742.60495,464.13297,278.48
Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.002,099,799.002,099,799.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-792,742.60-495,464.13-297,278.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,307,056.401,604,334.881,802,520.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
LTM Dividend per Share256.81256.81256.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend436.90477.86505.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Fair Value$13,850.66$22,081.49$42,357.85
Upside / Downside298.01%534.53%1,117.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,963,713.004,128,822.794,300,810.284,479,961.984,666,576.294,860,964.095,006,793.01
Payout Ratio47.02%55.62%64.21%72.81%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,863,914.002,296,432.872,761,750.983,261,850.353,798,821.244,374,867.684,631,283.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)2,137,184.852,157,900.922,178,616.99
Year 2 PV (M)2,392,000.022,438,596.842,485,643.16
Year 3 PV (M)2,629,232.712,706,432.932,785,129.73
Year 4 PV (M)2,849,719.952,961,828.033,077,211.78
Year 5 PV (M)3,054,264.033,205,189.043,362,022.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,547,061.6399,219,059.68104,073,950.71
Equity Value (M)107,609,463.18112,689,007.44117,962,574.61
Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
Fair Value$14,826.59$15,526.45$16,253.05
Upside / Downside326.05%346.16%367.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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