Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$534.56 - $1,632.41$851.80
Multi-Stage$353.83 - $386.63$369.93
Blended Fair Value$610.87
Current Price$315.43
Upside93.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.67%7.78%5.254.794.824.574.514.393.593.203.012.80
YoY Growth--9.80%-0.73%5.48%1.32%2.81%22.10%12.41%6.10%7.66%12.63%
Dividend Yield--2.14%2.41%3.70%3.35%2.96%4.87%3.43%2.91%3.43%4.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58,028.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,066.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)41,962.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,605.607,253.504,352.10
Cash Retained (M)41,962.0041,962.0041,962.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,605.60-7,253.50-4,352.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,356.4034,708.5037,609.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,813.532,813.532,813.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.7912.3413.37
LTM Dividend per Share5.715.715.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.7912.3413.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.5018.0519.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$534.56$851.80$1,632.41
Upside / Downside69.47%170.05%417.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58,028.0061,799.8265,816.8170,094.9074,651.0779,503.3981,888.49
Payout Ratio27.69%40.15%52.61%65.07%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,066.0024,812.2034,627.5345,614.0157,882.4471,553.0575,746.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22,600.2722,814.4923,028.71
Year 2 PV (M)28,728.8329,276.0429,828.40
Year 3 PV (M)34,470.1435,459.6636,467.93
Year 4 PV (M)39,841.8941,374.1042,950.08
Year 5 PV (M)44,861.0647,027.8649,277.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)825,010.66864,858.98906,232.39
Equity Value (M)995,512.851,040,811.121,087,785.11
Shares Outstanding (M)2,813.532,813.532,813.53
Fair Value$353.83$369.93$386.63
Upside / Downside12.17%17.28%22.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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