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John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.78 - $13.20$10.87
Multi-Stage$15.38 - $16.91$16.13
Blended Fair Value$13.50
Current Price$19.33
Upside-30.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.220.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--14.48%11.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.26%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.941.841.10
Cash Retained (M)10.4210.4210.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.94-1.84-1.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.488.589.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.2314.2314.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Fair Value$8.78$10.87$13.20
Upside / Downside-54.59%-43.77%-31.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.6914.6314.5714.5114.4614.4014.83
Payout Ratio29.07%41.25%53.44%65.63%77.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.276.047.799.5311.2512.9613.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)5.545.605.65
Year 2 PV (M)6.566.696.83
Year 3 PV (M)7.367.597.82
Year 4 PV (M)7.988.318.64
Year 5 PV (M)8.438.879.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)182.99192.46202.31
Equity Value (M)218.85229.50240.58
Shares Outstanding (M)14.2314.2314.23
Fair Value$15.38$16.13$16.91
Upside / Downside-20.42%-16.55%-12.53%

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