Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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J.Jill, Inc. (JILL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.17 - $23.51$19.72
Multi-Stage$26.72 - $29.40$28.03
Blended Fair Value$23.88
Current Price$15.07
Upside58.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-43.46%0.00%0.190.000.000.000.003.260.000.004.540.56
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%717.76%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%154.32%0.00%0.00%8.20%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.734.212.52
Cash Retained (M)30.1430.1430.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.73-4.21-2.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.4125.9327.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.4015.4015.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.681.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.681.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.751.912.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.17$19.72$23.51
Upside / Downside7.28%30.89%56.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.6633.3232.9932.6632.3332.0132.97
Payout Ratio10.45%26.36%42.27%58.18%74.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.528.7913.9519.0023.9628.8130.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8.018.098.17
Year 2 PV (M)11.5911.8312.07
Year 3 PV (M)14.3914.8415.29
Year 4 PV (M)16.5417.2217.93
Year 5 PV (M)18.1319.0720.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)342.87360.72379.31
Equity Value (M)411.53431.77452.83
Shares Outstanding (M)15.4015.4015.40
Fair Value$26.72$28.03$29.40
Upside / Downside77.29%86.02%95.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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