Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.37 - $300.59$216.63
Multi-Stage$174.13 - $190.33$182.08
Blended Fair Value$199.36
Current Price$260.76
Upside-23.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.11%9.08%5.775.505.254.984.694.503.833.202.802.53
YoY Growth--4.95%4.73%5.40%6.09%4.39%17.53%19.45%14.62%10.65%4.36%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.07%2.16%2.38%2.12%3.16%2.58%2.04%2.11%2.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,026.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,761.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,265.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)605.20378.25226.95
Cash Retained (M)1,265.001,265.001,265.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-605.20-378.25-226.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)659.80886.751,038.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)293.73293.73293.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.253.023.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.253.023.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.249.019.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate3.11%4.11%5.11%
Fair Value$159.37$216.63$300.59
Upside / Downside-38.88%-16.92%15.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,026.003,150.443,279.993,414.873,555.303,701.503,812.55
Payout Ratio58.20%64.56%70.92%77.28%83.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,761.002,033.812,326.082,638.952,973.623,331.353,526.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate3.11%4.11%5.11%
Year 1 PV (M)1,857.431,875.441,893.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,940.111,977.932,016.10
Year 3 PV (M)2,010.182,069.232,129.43
Year 4 PV (M)2,068.662,150.082,233.89
Year 5 PV (M)2,116.532,221.172,329.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,152.8243,187.4445,301.75
Equity Value (M)51,145.7253,481.2955,904.53
Shares Outstanding (M)293.73293.73293.73
Fair Value$174.13$182.08$190.33
Upside / Downside-33.22%-30.17%-27.01%

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