Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Isabella Bank Corporation (ISBA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.39 - $49.53$38.20
Multi-Stage$56.59 - $62.21$59.35
Blended Fair Value$48.78
Current Price$35.25
Upside38.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.33%1.76%1.101.111.091.131.151.121.101.081.030.98
YoY Growth---0.84%1.66%-3.41%-1.84%2.92%1.38%2.24%4.51%5.11%6.28%
Dividend Yield--4.65%5.67%4.39%4.36%5.28%6.20%4.64%3.93%3.73%3.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.642.281.37
Cash Retained (M)10.1110.1110.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.64-2.28-1.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.467.838.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.427.427.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.061.18
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.061.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.24%0.76%1.76%
Fair Value$29.39$38.20$49.53
Upside / Downside-16.61%8.38%40.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.2218.3518.4918.6318.7818.9219.49
Payout Ratio44.52%53.61%62.71%71.81%80.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.119.8411.6013.3815.1917.0318.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.24%0.76%1.76%
Year 1 PV (M)9.159.259.34
Year 2 PV (M)10.0410.2410.44
Year 3 PV (M)10.7711.1011.43
Year 4 PV (M)11.3811.8412.32
Year 5 PV (M)11.8612.4713.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)366.75385.50405.02
Equity Value (M)419.96440.40461.65
Shares Outstanding (M)7.427.427.42
Fair Value$56.59$59.35$62.21
Upside / Downside60.55%68.37%76.49%

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