Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,167.38 - $7,823.89$6,417.96
Multi-Stage$12,693.62 - $13,986.15$13,327.07
Blended Fair Value$9,872.51
Current Price$6,525.00
Upside51.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.36%-21.13%92.15163.96519.80552.47794.40604.71769.641,021.42456.301,484.30
YoY Growth---43.80%-68.46%-5.91%-30.45%31.37%-21.43%-24.65%123.85%-69.26%50.00%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.84%4.94%5.13%6.50%4.84%3.47%6.38%2.75%7.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,015,120.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)867,318.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,147,802.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)403,024.00251,890.00151,134.00
Cash Retained (M)1,147,802.001,147,802.001,147,802.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-403,024.00-251,890.00-151,134.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)744,778.00895,912.00996,668.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,347.063,347.063,347.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share222.52267.67297.77
LTM Dividend per Share259.13259.13259.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share222.52267.67297.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend481.65526.80556.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.75%-1.75%-0.75%
Fair Value$5,167.38$6,417.96$7,823.89
Upside / Downside-20.81%-1.64%19.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,015,120.001,979,883.151,945,262.461,911,247.151,877,826.651,844,990.541,900,340.26
Payout Ratio43.04%52.43%61.82%71.22%80.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)867,318.001,038,100.471,202,645.061,361,117.701,513,680.431,660,491.491,757,814.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.75%-1.75%-0.75%
Year 1 PV (M)966,490.52976,428.59986,366.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,042,446.791,063,995.201,085,764.06
Year 3 PV (M)1,098,424.781,132,658.481,167,596.18
Year 4 PV (M)1,137,279.081,184,782.401,233,758.55
Year 5 PV (M)1,161,522.741,222,481.091,285,972.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,080,101.9639,026,117.8741,052,993.19
Equity Value (M)42,486,265.8744,606,463.6346,812,450.96
Shares Outstanding (M)3,347.063,347.063,347.06
Fair Value$12,693.62$13,327.07$13,986.15
Upside / Downside94.54%104.25%114.35%

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