Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.53 - $266.67$195.62
Multi-Stage$192.44 - $211.07$201.58
Blended Fair Value$198.60
Current Price$122.11
Upside62.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.83%5.08%3.192.952.752.802.582.652.772.512.141.92
YoY Growth--8.25%7.18%-1.63%8.24%-2.30%-4.40%10.30%17.02%11.90%-1.56%
Dividend Yield--2.36%2.52%2.71%3.21%2.87%3.50%2.94%1.95%1.78%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)659.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)211.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)448.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)131.8082.3849.43
Cash Retained (M)448.00448.00448.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-131.80-82.38-49.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)316.20365.63398.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.7865.7865.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.815.566.06
LTM Dividend per Share3.213.213.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.815.566.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.028.779.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$145.53$195.62$266.67
Upside / Downside19.18%60.20%118.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)659.00677.67696.86716.60736.90757.78780.51
Payout Ratio32.02%43.61%55.21%66.81%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)211.00295.56384.74478.74577.76682.00721.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)272.42275.09277.77
Year 2 PV (M)326.85333.30339.81
Year 3 PV (M)374.85386.00397.37
Year 4 PV (M)416.95433.57450.69
Year 5 PV (M)453.64476.35499.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,813.1311,354.5811,917.52
Equity Value (M)12,657.8313,258.9013,883.13
Shares Outstanding (M)65.7865.7865.78
Fair Value$192.44$201.58$211.07
Upside / Downside57.60%65.08%72.85%

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