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Definitive Analysis

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Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.64 - $361.20$177.14
Multi-Stage$69.80 - $76.31$73.00
Blended Fair Value$125.07
Current Price$176.91
Upside-29.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.30%6.41%0.700.640.580.530.480.470.570.440.420.40
YoY Growth--10.55%10.31%8.55%10.24%2.08%-17.95%30.72%5.51%5.16%5.06%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.72%1.19%1.47%1.50%2.18%2.64%2.39%1.74%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.6210.396.23
Cash Retained (M)67.8867.8867.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.62-10.39-6.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.2657.4961.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.8420.8420.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.762.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.762.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.193.493.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.64$177.14$361.20
Upside / Downside-38.59%0.13%104.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.1288.5294.28100.41106.93113.88117.30
Payout Ratio18.33%32.66%47.00%61.33%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.2428.9244.3161.5880.91102.49108.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.3826.6326.88
Year 2 PV (M)36.8737.5738.28
Year 3 PV (M)46.7448.0849.45
Year 4 PV (M)56.0258.1760.39
Year 5 PV (M)64.7367.8671.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,224.141,283.271,344.65
Equity Value (M)1,454.881,521.581,590.75
Shares Outstanding (M)20.8420.8420.84
Fair Value$69.80$73.00$76.31
Upside / Downside-60.55%-58.74%-56.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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