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Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$194.77 - $632.00$592.27
Multi-Stage$82.87 - $90.71$86.72
Blended Fair Value$339.50
Current Price$31.04
Upside993.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.46%17.37%0.720.670.610.520.430.380.290.210.160.15
YoY Growth--8.56%9.65%17.26%19.34%12.89%34.67%35.21%34.37%3.69%4.03%
Dividend Yield--2.56%3.17%2.70%2.21%2.29%2.45%1.47%1.29%0.98%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.442.781.67
Cash Retained (M)16.8416.8416.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.44-2.78-1.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.4014.0715.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.772.012.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.772.012.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.782.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$194.77$592.27$632.00
Upside / Downside527.48%1,808.10%1,936.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.2123.6625.1926.8328.5830.4331.35
Payout Ratio24.18%37.34%50.51%63.67%76.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.378.8312.7317.0821.9627.3929.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.198.278.34
Year 2 PV (M)10.9311.1411.35
Year 3 PV (M)13.6013.9914.39
Year 4 PV (M)16.2016.8317.47
Year 5 PV (M)18.7419.6420.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)511.59536.30561.95
Equity Value (M)579.25606.17634.09
Shares Outstanding (M)6.996.996.99
Fair Value$82.87$86.72$90.71
Upside / Downside166.98%179.38%192.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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