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Definitive Analysis

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Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (HVN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.93 - $48.71$26.52
Multi-Stage$20.30 - $22.25$21.26
Blended Fair Value$23.89
Current Price$5.27
Upside353.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.50%-1.09%0.240.220.300.350.380.260.270.210.280.21
YoY Growth--9.09%-27.87%-12.86%-7.89%46.81%-5.73%27.97%-22.50%29.26%-20.01%
Dividend Yield--4.55%5.25%8.75%9.42%6.92%7.30%6.96%6.71%7.53%4.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)870.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.09108.8165.29
Cash Retained (M)297.31297.31297.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.09-108.81-65.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.21188.50232.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,248.431,248.431,248.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Fair Value$16.93$26.52$48.71
Upside / Downside221.18%403.28%824.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)870.47903.47937.73973.291,010.191,048.501,079.95
Payout Ratio65.85%70.68%75.51%80.34%85.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573.16638.54708.06781.92860.37943.65998.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Year 1 PV (M)595.59601.38607.18
Year 2 PV (M)616.00628.04640.20
Year 3 PV (M)634.50653.20672.26
Year 4 PV (M)651.19676.91703.37
Year 5 PV (M)666.18699.22733.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,182.3923,282.5824,426.01
Equity Value (M)25,345.8526,541.3327,782.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,248.431,248.431,248.43
Fair Value$20.30$21.26$22.25
Upside / Downside285.24%303.41%322.28%

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