Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.56 - $19.94$16.63
Multi-Stage$20.68 - $22.70$21.67
Blended Fair Value$19.15
Current Price$34.44
Upside-44.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)105.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.0013.137.88
Cash Retained (M)75.0175.0175.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.00-13.13-7.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.0061.8867.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.5460.5460.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.021.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.021.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Fair Value$13.56$16.63$19.94
Upside / Downside-60.61%-51.72%-42.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)105.02105.03105.03105.03105.04105.04108.19
Payout Ratio28.58%40.86%53.15%65.43%77.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.0142.9255.8268.7381.6394.54100.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)38.9339.3239.72
Year 2 PV (M)45.9446.8747.81
Year 3 PV (M)51.3052.8754.48
Year 4 PV (M)55.2857.5559.88
Year 5 PV (M)58.0861.0764.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,002.451,054.111,107.88
Equity Value (M)1,251.981,311.791,373.95
Shares Outstanding (M)60.5460.5460.54
Fair Value$20.68$21.67$22.70
Upside / Downside-39.95%-37.08%-34.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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