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Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.48 - $149.89$79.81
Multi-Stage$35.21 - $38.39$36.77
Blended Fair Value$58.29
Current Price$56.70
Upside2.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS25.03%22.15%1.381.261.130.740.570.450.340.300.240.19
YoY Growth--9.04%11.72%52.19%29.66%27.12%32.97%13.11%26.47%24.05%2.52%
Dividend Yield--4.05%3.29%2.36%1.48%1.90%1.03%0.64%0.60%0.77%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.0510.656.39
Cash Retained (M)25.8025.8025.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.05-10.65-6.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.7515.1519.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.9942.9942.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.350.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.381.381.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.350.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.741.83
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.48$79.81$149.89
Upside / Downside-10.97%40.75%164.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.2490.7896.68102.96109.66116.78120.29
Payout Ratio69.73%73.78%77.84%81.89%85.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.4466.9875.2584.3294.25105.11111.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.9861.5662.13
Year 2 PV (M)62.3763.5664.75
Year 3 PV (M)63.6265.4467.30
Year 4 PV (M)64.7367.2269.78
Year 5 PV (M)65.7268.8972.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,196.301,254.081,314.08
Equity Value (M)1,513.711,580.751,650.24
Shares Outstanding (M)42.9942.9942.99
Fair Value$35.21$36.77$38.39
Upside / Downside-37.89%-35.14%-32.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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