Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Hershey Company (HSY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$527.86 - $1,330.06$1,246.46
Multi-Stage$197.60 - $215.95$206.61
Blended Fair Value$726.53
Current Price$184.11
Upside294.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.19%9.43%5.344.373.813.373.153.002.772.592.462.34
YoY Growth--22.02%14.71%12.98%7.06%4.98%8.50%6.89%5.37%4.90%8.11%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.21%1.48%1.56%1.98%2.18%2.43%2.67%2.26%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,359.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,084.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)275.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)271.97169.98101.99
Cash Retained (M)275.39275.39275.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-271.97-169.98-101.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.42105.41173.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.33203.33203.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.520.85
LTM Dividend per Share5.335.335.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.520.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.355.856.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.57%6.57%6.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$527.86$1,246.46$1,330.06
Upside / Downside186.71%577.02%622.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,359.831,448.221,542.361,642.611,749.381,863.091,918.98
Payout Ratio79.75%81.80%83.85%85.90%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,084.451,184.631,293.251,410.991,538.571,676.781,775.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.57%6.57%6.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,101.171,111.601,122.04
Year 2 PV (M)1,117.441,138.731,160.21
Year 3 PV (M)1,133.281,165.811,198.96
Year 4 PV (M)1,148.681,192.861,238.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,163.671,219.871,278.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,512.6636,179.6337,910.40
Equity Value (M)40,176.9042,008.5143,908.14
Shares Outstanding (M)203.33203.33203.33
Fair Value$197.60$206.61$215.95
Upside / Downside7.33%12.22%17.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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