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Hennessy Advisors, Inc. (HNNA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.18 - $17.04$13.92
Multi-Stage$23.25 - $25.62$24.41
Blended Fair Value$19.17
Current Price$10.45
Upside83.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.520.510.500.500.450.360.280.19
YoY Growth---100.00%-99.80%1.56%1.69%0.13%12.09%22.75%30.45%47.33%8.46%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.01%7.73%6.08%4.71%5.89%4.44%3.64%1.69%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.991.250.75
Cash Retained (M)7.867.867.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.99-1.25-0.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.876.617.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.917.917.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.840.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.840.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.18$13.92$17.04
Upside / Downside6.95%33.24%63.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.969.869.769.669.579.479.76
Payout Ratio21.11%34.89%48.67%62.45%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.103.444.756.037.298.529.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.193.223.25
Year 2 PV (M)4.084.164.25
Year 3 PV (M)4.804.955.10
Year 4 PV (M)5.375.605.83
Year 5 PV (M)5.826.126.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)160.60168.96177.67
Equity Value (M)183.86193.02202.54
Shares Outstanding (M)7.917.917.91
Fair Value$23.25$24.41$25.62
Upside / Downside122.53%133.61%145.14%

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