Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Heineken N.V. (HNK1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.09 - $239.97$144.19
Multi-Stage$125.66 - $137.67$131.55
Blended Fair Value$137.87
Current Price$74.02
Upside86.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.74%5.19%2.132.371.951.411.041.691.941.801.831.62
YoY Growth---10.19%21.47%38.07%36.54%-38.70%-12.75%7.81%-1.94%13.42%25.73%
Dividend Yield--3.10%2.61%2.22%1.43%1.14%1.78%2.51%2.07%2.57%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,498.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,076.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)421.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)499.60312.25187.35
Cash Retained (M)421.50421.50421.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-499.60-312.25-187.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-78.10109.25234.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)562.56562.56562.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.190.42
LTM Dividend per Share3.693.693.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.190.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.894.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Fair Value$96.09$144.19$239.97
Upside / Downside29.82%94.80%224.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,498.002,584.692,674.392,767.202,863.242,962.603,051.48
Payout Ratio83.13%84.50%85.88%87.25%88.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,076.502,184.102,296.662,414.402,537.552,666.342,822.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)2,035.592,055.452,075.32
Year 2 PV (M)1,994.952,034.082,073.59
Year 3 PV (M)1,954.632,012.422,071.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,914.651,990.492,068.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,875.031,968.322,065.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)60,914.0363,944.8867,095.20
Equity Value (M)70,688.8774,005.6477,449.28
Shares Outstanding (M)562.56562.56562.56
Fair Value$125.66$131.55$137.67
Upside / Downside69.76%77.73%86.00%

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