Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB (publ) (HMSB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.98 - $101.44$81.78
Multi-Stage$148.92 - $163.92$156.27
Blended Fair Value$119.02
Current Price$140.99
Upside-15.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.31%-4.00%6.516.596.666.700.0010.0510.0510.0510.0510.05
YoY Growth---1.14%-1.03%-0.66%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.63%
Dividend Yield--4.45%4.52%5.03%4.00%0.00%5.89%7.23%7.30%4.22%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,221.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,660.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,176.201,360.13816.08
Cash Retained (M)5,660.005,660.005,660.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,176.20-1,360.13-816.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,483.804,299.884,843.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,605.841,605.841,605.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.172.683.02
LTM Dividend per Share3.253.253.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.172.683.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.425.936.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Fair Value$64.98$81.78$101.44
Upside / Downside-53.91%-42.00%-28.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,881.0010,788.2510,696.2910,605.1210,514.7210,425.1010,737.85
Payout Ratio47.98%56.39%64.79%73.19%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,221.006,083.086,930.097,762.228,579.659,382.599,932.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Year 1 PV (M)5,662.955,720.655,778.34
Year 2 PV (M)6,005.886,128.896,253.14
Year 3 PV (M)6,262.426,455.806,653.11
Year 4 PV (M)6,443.846,710.506,985.35
Year 5 PV (M)6,560.206,901.287,256.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)208,199.72219,024.52230,294.96
Equity Value (M)239,135.00250,941.63263,221.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,605.841,605.841,605.84
Fair Value$148.92$156.27$163.92
Upside / Downside5.62%10.84%16.26%

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