Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

H. Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.38 - $305.70$156.38
Multi-Stage$184.32 - $202.81$193.38
Blended Fair Value$174.88
Current Price$45.54
Upside284.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.87%2.47%0.700.580.400.500.822.401.600.490.000.00
YoY Growth--20.49%45.09%-20.12%-39.02%-65.81%50.03%228.99%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.01%1.75%1.26%1.54%2.53%7.39%4.93%1.50%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,809.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)943.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,866.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)761.80476.13285.68
Cash Retained (M)2,866.002,866.002,866.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-761.80-476.13-285.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,104.202,389.882,580.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)992.72992.72992.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.412.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.950.950.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.412.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.073.363.55
WACC / Discount Rate4.81%4.81%4.81%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Fair Value$97.38$156.38$305.70
Upside / Downside113.82%243.39%571.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,809.003,908.174,009.924,114.334,221.454,331.364,461.30
Payout Ratio24.76%37.81%50.85%63.90%76.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)943.001,477.512,039.222,629.173,248.473,898.224,126.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.81%4.81%4.81%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Year 1 PV (M)1,396.011,409.751,423.49
Year 2 PV (M)1,820.461,856.471,892.83
Year 3 PV (M)2,217.662,283.792,351.21
Year 4 PV (M)2,588.882,692.322,798.82
Year 5 PV (M)2,935.353,082.673,235.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)172,018.92180,652.40189,629.09
Equity Value (M)182,977.29191,977.40201,331.31
Shares Outstanding (M)992.72992.72992.72
Fair Value$184.32$193.38$202.81
Upside / Downside304.74%324.65%345.34%

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