Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hess Midstream LP (HESM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.16 - $562.13$197.29
Multi-Stage$61.70 - $67.29$64.44
Blended Fair Value$130.87
Current Price$38.51
Upside239.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.47%23.90%2.021.090.780.420.270.730.694.092.632.90
YoY Growth--84.55%40.11%84.21%56.33%-63.00%6.48%-83.19%55.46%-9.50%1,128.62%
Dividend Yield--4.77%3.04%2.69%1.41%1.21%7.20%3.23%21.31%10.27%11.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)288.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.0041.2524.75
Cash Retained (M)41.6041.6041.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.00-41.25-24.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-24.400.3516.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)116.75116.75116.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.210.000.14
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.210.000.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.262.472.61
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.16$197.29$562.13
Upside / Downside165.29%412.31%1,359.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)330.00351.45374.29398.62424.53452.13465.69
Payout Ratio87.39%87.92%88.44%88.96%89.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)288.40308.98331.01354.61379.87406.92430.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)283.84286.53289.22
Year 2 PV (M)279.34284.66290.03
Year 3 PV (M)274.90282.79290.83
Year 4 PV (M)270.52280.93291.63
Year 5 PV (M)266.21279.06292.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,828.436,109.946,402.23
Equity Value (M)7,203.237,523.917,856.35
Shares Outstanding (M)116.75116.75116.75
Fair Value$61.70$64.44$67.29
Upside / Downside60.21%67.35%74.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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