Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.48 - $28.73$23.91
Multi-Stage$35.26 - $38.77$36.98
Blended Fair Value$30.45
Current Price$25.20
Upside20.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-35.98%0.00%0.770.690.590.530.527.121.351.811.290.00
YoY Growth--10.56%17.70%10.93%1.42%-92.66%427.81%-25.32%40.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.42%3.70%2.98%2.92%3.06%67.66%8.69%11.63%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.679.795.88
Cash Retained (M)52.3352.3352.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.67-9.79-5.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.6642.5446.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.5731.5731.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.351.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.351.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.172.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.48$23.91$28.73
Upside / Downside-22.71%-5.10%14.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.3477.5676.7876.0275.2674.5076.74
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.0134.5642.9451.1459.1867.0570.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.6832.0032.33
Year 2 PV (M)36.0836.8237.57
Year 3 PV (M)39.3940.6141.86
Year 4 PV (M)41.7943.5245.30
Year 5 PV (M)43.4045.6648.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)921.06969.021,018.96
Equity Value (M)1,113.401,167.631,224.02
Shares Outstanding (M)31.5731.5731.57
Fair Value$35.26$36.98$38.77
Upside / Downside39.94%46.75%53.84%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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