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Definitive Analysis

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Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.25 - $666.92$283.77
Multi-Stage$103.05 - $112.69$107.78
Blended Fair Value$195.78
Current Price$54.33
Upside260.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.73%32.29%1.031.030.980.990.990.990.840.510.380.27
YoY Growth---0.40%5.72%-1.14%-0.46%0.06%17.78%64.77%36.21%38.20%333.44%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.79%2.96%2.43%2.76%4.07%2.42%1.19%1.11%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.865.543.32
Cash Retained (M)35.6635.6635.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.86-5.54-3.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.8030.1232.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.373.794.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.373.794.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.464.885.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$166.25$283.77$666.92
Upside / Downside206.00%422.32%1,127.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.3247.2150.2753.5457.0260.7362.55
Payout Ratio19.54%33.63%47.72%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.6615.8823.9933.1043.2854.6557.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.5214.6614.79
Year 2 PV (M)20.0620.4420.83
Year 3 PV (M)25.3126.0326.77
Year 4 PV (M)30.2631.4332.62
Year 5 PV (M)34.9436.6338.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)693.82727.33762.12
Equity Value (M)818.91856.52895.53
Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
Fair Value$103.05$107.78$112.69
Upside / Downside89.67%98.39%107.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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