Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.11 - $291.28$197.48
Multi-Stage$100.65 - $110.05$105.26
Blended Fair Value$151.37
Current Price$73.86
Upside104.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-14.09%0.070.070.060.000.000.000.240.250.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%2.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-1.37%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.11%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.61%2.26%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)338.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)335.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.7342.3325.40
Cash Retained (M)335.80335.80335.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.73-42.33-25.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.06293.46310.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.2044.2044.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.066.647.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.066.647.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.136.707.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.12%10.12%10.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$140.11$197.48$291.28
Upside / Downside89.69%167.37%294.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)338.67360.69384.13409.10435.69464.01477.93
Payout Ratio0.85%18.68%36.51%54.34%72.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.8867.37140.24222.30314.44417.61442.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.12%10.12%10.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.6161.1861.76
Year 2 PV (M)113.50115.66117.84
Year 3 PV (M)161.85166.49171.23
Year 4 PV (M)205.94213.86222.01
Year 5 PV (M)246.06257.94270.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,660.643,837.454,021.03
Equity Value (M)4,448.604,652.604,864.15
Shares Outstanding (M)44.2044.2044.20
Fair Value$100.65$105.26$110.05
Upside / Downside36.27%42.51%48.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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