Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Gap, Inc. (GPS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.85 - $16.21$14.06
Multi-Stage$18.43 - $20.20$19.29
Blended Fair Value$16.68
Current Price$20.16
Upside-17.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.17%-5.18%0.590.580.580.590.000.950.980.950.960.99
YoY Growth--1.35%0.91%-2.65%0.00%-100.00%-2.41%3.32%-1.63%-2.65%-1.57%
Dividend Yield--2.93%2.70%6.01%4.77%0.00%12.19%3.77%3.29%3.67%4.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)851.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)353.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)170.20106.3863.83
Cash Retained (M)498.00498.00498.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-170.20-106.38-63.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)327.80391.63434.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)381.25381.25381.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.861.031.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.861.031.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.952.06
WACC / Discount Rate10.89%10.89%10.89%
Growth Rate-3.64%-2.64%-1.64%
Fair Value$11.85$14.06$16.21
Upside / Downside-41.24%-30.27%-19.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)851.00828.57806.73785.46764.76744.60766.94
Payout Ratio41.48%51.18%60.89%70.59%80.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)353.00424.10491.20554.47614.07670.14709.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.89%10.89%10.89%
Growth Rate-3.64%-2.64%-1.64%
Year 1 PV (M)378.52382.45386.37
Year 2 PV (M)391.29399.46407.70
Year 3 PV (M)394.22406.62419.28
Year 4 PV (M)389.67406.10423.04
Year 5 PV (M)379.55399.65420.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,091.825,361.565,642.61
Equity Value (M)7,025.077,355.847,699.61
Shares Outstanding (M)381.25381.25381.25
Fair Value$18.43$19.29$20.20
Upside / Downside-8.60%-4.30%0.18%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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