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Definitive Analysis

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GR Engineering Services Limited (GNG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.10 - $76.06$71.28
Multi-Stage$11.95 - $13.05$12.49
Blended Fair Value$41.88
Current Price$3.25
Upside1,188.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS40.32%10.09%0.200.180.180.150.080.040.080.050.090.09
YoY Growth--6.66%2.10%19.11%84.57%127.24%-55.52%50.24%-39.85%0.85%18.56%
Dividend Yield--6.02%8.57%8.39%7.77%5.44%4.99%9.98%3.87%6.08%9.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.088.174.90
Cash Retained (M)0.620.620.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.08-8.17-4.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.46-7.56-4.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.97170.97170.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.04-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.04-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.10$71.28$76.06
Upside / Downside979.86%2,093.23%2,240.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.3969.6474.1778.9984.1289.5992.28
Payout Ratio99.06%97.24%95.43%93.62%91.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.7767.7270.7873.9577.2380.6385.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.0463.6364.23
Year 2 PV (M)61.3362.5063.68
Year 3 PV (M)59.6461.3663.10
Year 4 PV (M)57.9960.2262.51
Year 5 PV (M)56.3559.0761.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,744.361,828.621,916.09
Equity Value (M)2,042.712,135.392,231.51
Shares Outstanding (M)170.97170.97170.97
Fair Value$11.95$12.49$13.05
Upside / Downside267.62%284.30%301.60%

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