Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Goodman Group (GMG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.95 - $31.54$21.18
Multi-Stage$13.02 - $14.21$13.61
Blended Fair Value$17.39
Current Price$34.24
Upside-49.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.91%6.51%0.300.290.290.290.280.280.270.250.240.17
YoY Growth--0.74%0.94%0.88%1.05%0.93%3.33%8.25%5.92%39.81%8.38%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.84%1.45%1.61%1.35%1.90%1.79%2.62%3.03%2.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,567.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)852.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)715.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)313.50195.94117.56
Cash Retained (M)715.20715.20715.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-313.50-195.94-117.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)401.70519.26597.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.701,935.701,935.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Fair Value$14.95$21.18$31.54
Upside / Downside-56.34%-38.14%-7.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,567.501,653.831,744.911,841.001,942.392,049.362,110.84
Payout Ratio54.37%61.50%68.62%75.75%82.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)852.301,017.081,197.421,394.551,609.751,844.421,952.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Year 1 PV (M)923.95932.79941.63
Year 2 PV (M)988.171,007.171,026.35
Year 3 PV (M)1,045.461,075.761,106.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,096.291,138.861,182.65
Year 5 PV (M)1,141.091,196.741,254.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,011.1120,987.0122,000.62
Equity Value (M)25,206.0726,338.3327,512.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.701,935.701,935.70
Fair Value$13.02$13.61$14.21
Upside / Downside-61.97%-60.26%-58.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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