Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Graham Holdings Company (GHC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,023.66 - $6,295.63$4,264.30
Multi-Stage$2,798.31 - $3,066.67$2,930.00
Blended Fair Value$3,597.15
Current Price$1,177.31
Upside205.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.53%-7.77%6.967.107.046.916.876.776.566.496.2612.31
YoY Growth---1.96%0.78%1.91%0.55%1.41%3.27%1.02%3.67%-49.14%-21.13%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.94%1.18%1.13%1.22%1.99%0.96%1.08%1.04%2.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)732.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)701.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.4791.5454.93
Cash Retained (M)701.43701.43701.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.47-91.54-54.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)554.96609.89646.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.364.364.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share127.21139.80148.20
LTM Dividend per Share7.097.097.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share127.21139.80148.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend134.30146.89155.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Fair Value$3,023.66$4,264.30$6,295.63
Upside / Downside156.83%262.21%434.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)732.36767.21803.71841.95882.01923.98951.70
Payout Ratio4.22%21.38%38.53%55.69%72.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.93164.02309.70468.88642.50831.58880.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Year 1 PV (M)149.91151.35152.80
Year 2 PV (M)258.71263.72268.78
Year 3 PV (M)357.99368.44379.10
Year 4 PV (M)448.36465.90483.94
Year 5 PV (M)530.39556.45583.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,462.2710,976.2511,510.23
Equity Value (M)12,207.6412,782.1113,378.37
Shares Outstanding (M)4.364.364.36
Fair Value$2,798.31$2,930.00$3,066.67
Upside / Downside137.69%148.87%160.48%

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