Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.85 - $96.10$77.69
Multi-Stage$80.01 - $87.72$83.79
Blended Fair Value$80.74
Current Price$46.63
Upside73.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.40%9.16%1.231.201.121.111.111.091.030.930.770.73
YoY Growth--3.13%6.37%0.84%0.38%1.39%5.97%10.96%20.18%6.81%41.31%
Dividend Yield--2.64%1.76%2.98%2.90%2.78%3.28%3.67%1.90%1.55%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8225.5115.31
Cash Retained (M)164.50164.50164.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.82-25.51-15.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.68138.99149.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.334.64
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.334.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.085.565.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.28%9.28%9.28%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Fair Value$61.85$77.69$96.10
Upside / Downside32.65%66.60%106.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.10208.14212.25216.45220.74225.10231.86
Payout Ratio19.40%33.52%47.64%61.76%75.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6069.77101.12133.68167.50202.59214.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.28%9.28%9.28%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)63.2263.8564.48
Year 2 PV (M)83.0384.6886.35
Year 3 PV (M)99.47102.45105.49
Year 4 PV (M)112.93117.47122.14
Year 5 PV (M)123.77130.02136.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,087.942,193.392,303.06
Equity Value (M)2,570.352,691.862,818.05
Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
Fair Value$80.01$83.79$87.72
Upside / Downside71.58%79.69%88.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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