Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Five Star Bancorp (FSBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.37 - $29.78$24.91
Multi-Stage$35.31 - $38.81$37.02
Blended Fair Value$30.97
Current Price$32.20
Upside-3.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.17%0.00%0.760.610.722.441.241.240.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.50%-15.41%-70.54%96.98%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.75%2.72%3.37%8.63%6.20%8.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.467.164.30
Cash Retained (M)40.2140.2140.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.46-7.16-4.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.7633.0535.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.2621.2621.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.351.551.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.351.551.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.162.362.49
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.37$24.91$29.78
Upside / Downside-36.73%-22.64%-7.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.2856.7156.1455.5855.0254.4756.11
Payout Ratio29.79%41.84%53.88%65.92%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.0723.7230.2536.6442.9049.0351.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.6721.8922.11
Year 2 PV (M)25.2425.7626.28
Year 3 PV (M)27.9228.7929.67
Year 4 PV (M)29.8631.1032.38
Year 5 PV (M)31.1832.8034.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)614.75646.76680.09
Equity Value (M)750.63787.10825.02
Shares Outstanding (M)21.2621.2621.26
Fair Value$35.31$37.02$38.81
Upside / Downside9.65%14.98%20.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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