Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Falcon Minerals Corporation (FLMN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.47 - $5.13$4.26
Multi-Stage$6.70 - $7.35$7.02
Blended Fair Value$5.64
Current Price$6.74
Upside-16.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.230.593.023.120.460.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-61.26%-80.49%-3.19%580.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.08%27.38%33.60%27.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.502.811.69
Cash Retained (M)4.094.094.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.50-2.81-1.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.411.282.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.4651.4651.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.47$4.26$5.13
Upside / Downside-48.57%-36.78%-23.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.4922.2622.0421.8221.6021.3922.03
Payout Ratio81.83%83.46%85.10%86.73%88.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4018.5818.7618.9319.0919.2520.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.0517.2217.40
Year 2 PV (M)15.7916.1216.44
Year 3 PV (M)14.6215.0715.53
Year 4 PV (M)13.5314.0914.67
Year 5 PV (M)12.5213.1713.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)271.30285.43300.14
Equity Value (M)344.81361.10378.03
Shares Outstanding (M)51.4651.4651.46
Fair Value$6.70$7.02$7.35
Upside / Downside-0.59%4.11%8.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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