Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$405.00 - $804.75$561.44
Multi-Stage$298.38 - $326.04$311.96
Blended Fair Value$436.70
Current Price$825.18
Upside-47.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.08%17.61%1.200.860.570.490.440.410.350.310.290.26
YoY Growth--40.77%51.31%15.49%12.16%6.57%18.54%11.66%7.04%9.68%10.82%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.27%0.39%0.55%0.58%1.12%0.65%0.75%0.79%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)837.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)777.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.52104.7062.82
Cash Retained (M)777.50777.50777.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.52-104.70-62.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)609.98672.80714.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.5335.5335.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.1718.9420.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.1718.9420.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8620.6321.81
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$405.00$561.44$804.75
Upside / Downside-50.92%-31.96%-2.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)837.62892.07950.051,011.811,077.571,147.611,182.04
Payout Ratio7.18%23.74%40.31%56.87%73.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.12211.79382.93575.42791.321,032.851,093.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)190.02191.82193.62
Year 2 PV (M)308.24314.11320.03
Year 3 PV (M)415.56427.49439.64
Year 4 PV (M)512.72532.44552.72
Year 5 PV (M)600.41629.41659.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,574.028,988.159,418.13
Equity Value (M)10,600.9711,083.4111,583.67
Shares Outstanding (M)35.5335.5335.53
Fair Value$298.38$311.96$326.04
Upside / Downside-63.84%-62.20%-60.49%

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