Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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First Horizon Corporation (FHN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.99 - $150.47$74.67
Multi-Stage$30.17 - $32.95$31.54
Blended Fair Value$53.10
Current Price$22.61
Upside134.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.19%21.50%0.640.640.620.640.430.330.270.150.120.10
YoY Growth---0.90%3.40%-2.70%50.00%29.82%23.02%73.96%25.83%17.72%13.89%
Dividend Yield--3.29%4.30%3.50%2.72%2.52%4.08%1.85%0.82%0.66%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)886.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)305.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)581.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.20110.7566.45
Cash Retained (M)581.00581.00581.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.20-110.75-66.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)403.80470.25514.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)520.25520.25520.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.99$74.67$150.47
Upside / Downside103.40%230.24%565.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)886.00943.591,004.921,070.241,139.811,213.901,250.31
Payout Ratio34.42%45.54%56.65%67.77%78.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)305.00429.71569.34725.30899.141,092.511,156.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)391.87395.59399.30
Year 2 PV (M)473.49482.51491.61
Year 3 PV (M)550.09565.88581.97
Year 4 PV (M)621.89645.80670.40
Year 5 PV (M)689.10722.38756.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,967.6113,593.9514,244.26
Equity Value (M)15,694.0416,406.1017,144.48
Shares Outstanding (M)520.25520.25520.25
Fair Value$30.17$31.54$32.95
Upside / Downside33.42%39.47%45.75%

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