Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.11 - $75.60$52.80
Multi-Stage$51.67 - $56.58$54.08
Blended Fair Value$53.44
Current Price$45.82
Upside16.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.57%4.85%1.681.571.541.471.461.411.231.111.061.05
YoY Growth--7.06%1.68%4.95%0.47%3.81%14.49%11.27%4.58%0.66%0.50%
Dividend Yield--4.15%4.08%3.85%3.20%4.21%3.51%2.97%3.25%3.32%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,004.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)326.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.00166.2599.75
Cash Retained (M)326.00326.00326.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.00-166.25-99.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.00159.75226.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)578.15578.15578.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.741.741.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.842.012.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.07%3.07%4.07%
Fair Value$38.11$52.80$75.60
Upside / Downside-16.83%15.23%64.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,330.001,370.851,412.961,456.361,501.091,547.201,593.61
Payout Ratio75.49%78.39%81.29%84.20%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,004.001,074.621,148.641,226.191,307.421,392.481,474.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.07%3.07%4.07%
Year 1 PV (M)994.571,004.311,014.06
Year 2 PV (M)983.871,003.251,022.81
Year 3 PV (M)972.061,000.911,030.32
Year 4 PV (M)959.24997.381,036.66
Year 5 PV (M)945.54992.771,041.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,017.6926,267.4327,566.63
Equity Value (M)29,872.9631,266.0532,712.35
Shares Outstanding (M)578.15578.15578.15
Fair Value$51.67$54.08$56.58
Upside / Downside12.77%18.03%23.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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