Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$359.55 - $1,035.18$563.42
Multi-Stage$241.38 - $263.73$252.35
Blended Fair Value$407.89
Current Price$143.10
Upside185.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.74%0.00%5.424.965.401.070.810.380.130.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.28%-8.14%403.85%32.20%110.71%202.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.39%2.49%4.00%0.78%1.10%1.47%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,196.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,132.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,064.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)839.20524.50314.70
Cash Retained (M)3,064.003,064.003,064.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-839.20-524.50-314.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,224.802,539.502,749.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)290.95290.95290.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.658.739.45
LTM Dividend per Share3.893.893.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.658.739.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.5412.6213.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$359.55$563.42$1,035.18
Upside / Downside151.26%293.72%623.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,196.004,468.744,759.215,068.565,398.015,748.885,921.35
Payout Ratio26.98%39.58%52.19%64.79%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,132.001,768.842,483.683,283.984,177.835,174.005,477.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,609.241,624.501,639.75
Year 2 PV (M)2,055.712,094.872,134.39
Year 3 PV (M)2,472.872,543.852,616.19
Year 4 PV (M)2,862.092,972.163,085.38
Year 5 PV (M)3,224.733,380.483,542.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,004.0060,805.6263,714.46
Equity Value (M)70,228.6573,421.4876,732.36
Shares Outstanding (M)290.95290.95290.95
Fair Value$241.38$252.35$263.73
Upside / Downside68.68%76.35%84.30%

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