Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Exponent, Inc. (EXPO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.40 - $138.11$76.75
Multi-Stage$36.97 - $40.35$38.63
Blended Fair Value$57.69
Current Price$67.10
Upside-14.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202320222021202120202018201720162016
DPS11.68%16.12%1.131.050.950.840.770.650.530.420.360.30
YoY Growth--7.72%9.76%13.98%8.61%18.72%23.08%24.66%16.26%20.03%19.83%
Dividend Yield--1.46%1.27%0.96%0.77%0.78%0.92%0.91%1.08%1.22%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.9713.107.86
Cash Retained (M)43.9643.9643.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.97-13.10-7.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.9930.8536.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.5951.5951.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Fair Value$49.40$76.75$138.11
Upside / Downside-26.37%14.38%105.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.84111.18117.91125.05132.62140.65144.87
Payout Ratio58.07%64.46%70.84%77.23%83.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.8871.6683.5396.58110.89126.59134.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Year 1 PV (M)65.4266.0466.67
Year 2 PV (M)69.6170.9472.29
Year 3 PV (M)73.4775.5977.74
Year 4 PV (M)77.0179.9883.04
Year 5 PV (M)80.2584.1488.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,541.371,616.141,693.79
Equity Value (M)1,907.131,992.842,081.71
Shares Outstanding (M)51.5951.5951.59
Fair Value$36.97$38.63$40.35
Upside / Downside-44.90%-42.43%-39.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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