Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.25 - $126.05$104.77
Multi-Stage$106.04 - $116.25$111.05
Blended Fair Value$107.91
Current Price$213.75
Upside-49.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.510.361.471.401.331.130.82
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%39.58%-75.38%4.84%5.82%17.06%38.36%28.14%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.26%0.21%2.61%1.17%1.20%0.90%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,388.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)151.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,237.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)277.60173.50104.10
Cash Retained (M)1,237.001,237.001,237.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-277.60-173.50-104.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)959.401,063.501,132.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.60132.60132.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.248.028.54
LTM Dividend per Share1.141.141.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.248.028.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.379.169.68
WACC / Discount Rate10.44%10.44%10.44%
Growth Rate0.56%1.56%2.56%
Fair Value$85.25$104.77$126.05
Upside / Downside-60.12%-50.98%-41.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,388.001,409.621,431.571,453.871,476.511,499.511,544.49
Payout Ratio10.88%26.70%42.53%58.35%74.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)151.00376.41608.81848.351,095.211,349.561,428.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.44%10.44%10.44%
Growth Rate0.56%1.56%2.56%
Year 1 PV (M)337.49340.84344.20
Year 2 PV (M)489.40499.19509.07
Year 3 PV (M)611.44629.87648.66
Year 4 PV (M)707.74736.31765.74
Year 5 PV (M)781.91821.57862.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,132.0611,696.6912,284.01
Equity Value (M)14,060.0414,724.4715,414.50
Shares Outstanding (M)132.60132.60132.60
Fair Value$106.04$111.05$116.25
Upside / Downside-50.39%-48.05%-45.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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