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Evans Bancorp, Inc. (EVBN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.87 - $126.83$74.23
Multi-Stage$48.20 - $52.73$50.42
Blended Fair Value$62.32
Current Price$43.30
Upside43.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.43%10.30%1.321.311.251.181.080.920.800.690.590.55
YoY Growth--0.90%4.05%6.13%9.18%17.66%15.00%15.95%17.22%6.85%11.48%
Dividend Yield--3.04%4.45%3.74%3.11%3.19%3.79%2.19%1.53%1.53%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.391.490.90
Cash Retained (M)4.674.674.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.39-1.49-0.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.283.173.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.535.535.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.570.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.570.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.731.892.00
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate3.60%4.60%5.60%
Fair Value$48.87$74.23$126.83
Upside / Downside12.86%71.42%192.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.9512.5013.0813.6814.3114.9715.42
Payout Ratio60.97%66.77%72.58%78.39%84.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.298.359.4910.7212.0513.4714.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate3.60%4.60%5.60%
Year 1 PV (M)7.717.787.86
Year 2 PV (M)8.098.258.41
Year 3 PV (M)8.448.698.94
Year 4 PV (M)8.769.109.45
Year 5 PV (M)9.049.499.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)224.65235.70247.19
Equity Value (M)266.70279.02291.80
Shares Outstanding (M)5.535.535.53
Fair Value$48.20$50.42$52.73
Upside / Downside11.30%16.45%21.78%

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