Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.16 - $1.66$1.41
Multi-Stage$2.03 - $2.23$2.13
Blended Fair Value$1.77
Current Price$7.66
Upside-76.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.94%-3.63%0.090.080.090.070.140.280.260.250.210.15
YoY Growth--2.37%-1.84%27.60%-51.29%-50.55%6.12%6.09%19.67%42.44%16.62%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.87%1.32%0.68%1.24%3.11%1.65%1.47%1.00%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.405.873.52
Cash Retained (M)23.5323.5323.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.40-5.87-3.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.1317.6520.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)269.71269.71269.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Fair Value$1.16$1.41$1.66
Upside / Downside-84.79%-81.62%-78.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.9946.2145.4344.6743.9243.1844.48
Payout Ratio49.94%57.95%65.96%73.98%81.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.4726.7829.9733.0436.0138.8741.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)24.3224.5724.82
Year 2 PV (M)24.7325.2425.75
Year 3 PV (M)24.7725.5426.33
Year 4 PV (M)24.5225.5426.59
Year 5 PV (M)24.0425.3026.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)426.29448.64471.92
Equity Value (M)548.65574.82602.03
Shares Outstanding (M)269.71269.71269.71
Fair Value$2.03$2.13$2.23
Upside / Downside-73.44%-72.18%-70.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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