Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.24 - $164.03$100.13
Multi-Stage$74.28 - $81.36$77.75
Blended Fair Value$88.94
Current Price$39.61
Upside124.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.69%4.34%0.940.610.180.000.440.861.720.840.841.03
YoY Growth--54.78%242.98%0.00%-100.00%-49.70%-49.58%103.34%0.96%-18.94%67.62%
Dividend Yield--2.37%2.02%1.10%0.00%2.99%4.55%7.23%2.81%3.71%4.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.741.090.65
Cash Retained (M)4.014.014.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.74-1.09-0.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.262.923.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.061.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.701.701.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.061.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$67.24$100.13$164.03
Upside / Downside69.76%152.80%314.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.719.079.449.8210.2210.6310.95
Payout Ratio54.01%61.21%68.41%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.715.556.457.428.469.5710.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)5.145.195.24
Year 2 PV (M)5.545.655.75
Year 3 PV (M)5.906.076.25
Year 4 PV (M)6.236.476.72
Year 5 PV (M)6.526.857.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)175.77184.46193.50
Equity Value (M)205.10214.69224.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
Fair Value$74.28$77.75$81.36
Upside / Downside87.53%96.30%105.41%

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